craigmcn

David Eby called a provincial election for October 24, less than two years into his majority mandate, and a week after the province-wide municipal elections. Local government leaders begged him not to overlap the campaigns, citing voter confusion and a shortage of volunteers and donor dollars. He went ahead anyway, betting the Conservatives were too busy imploding to punish him for it.

That bet is not paying off. Leger found the early call itself unpopular, with just 19 per cent saying his government has governed well and deserves re-election. Angus Reid had the Conservatives at 43 per cent to the NDP’s 35 right after the call, then 48 to 43 in early October, with 58 per cent viewing Eby unfavourably. Whatever Eby saw in his own numbers, it wasn’t a landslide waiting to happen.

I’ll say plainly that the Conservatives are ideologically repugnant and organizationally a mess. They lost a leader and named an interim one about 36 hours before the writ dropped. But a mess still counts as an option when it’s the only one on the ballot. The Greens sit at seven per cent, so anyone fed up with the government has exactly one place to put that frustration, and Leger found half of those unhappy voters care more about defeating the NDP than about Conservative infighting.

Calling an election because your opponent is weak only works if voters are looking at your opponent. They’re looking at you, and they aren’t impressed. Eby read a chaotic opposition as a mandate, when it was only an opening.